Hey folks.  There isn’t too much to report this week as the market continues its push higher.  As we’ve been talking about for the past several months, we’re in the 5th leg up in a rally that began back in 2009.  There is no way to know how high this market can go before rolling over but, STAY ALERT.  In the mean time, enjoy the continued weekly moves up!

Short Term

The short term chart of the S&P500 (C Fund) below shows an erratic price pattern over the past 2 weeks.  This could be a shake out before moving higher, or the very beginning stages of a crack in the rally.  The S&P500 currently sits 2.5% above its 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) and 6.5% above its 200DMA.  We’d like to see the pattern firm up a bit as we approach the 2600 level.  

Long Term

The long term chart of the C Fund shows no signs of letting up.  The upward angle is very steep, likely resulting in a steep decline EVENTUALLY…  With strong volume and indicators all positive, I’m not too worried at this point.

The S Fund has been in a 4-5 week tight consolidation.  Normally this pattern resolves by moving in the direction of the previous trend.  In this case, that means the odds favor a breakout to the upside in the S fund.  

The I Fund is enjoying an amazing run!  If you’re in the fund, as long as the price stays above its very well established trend line, you’re good to go…

The charts are looking very solid and all indications are that we will continue moving up.  Having said that, the Elliott Wave Count will eventually catch up to us.  Enjoy this run while it lasts but be ready for some drama when the end comes…

Have a great week!

Jerry

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